Democrats Leading in Ballots As Early Voting Surges To Midterms Record

Key Points:

• Nearly 49.6 million early votes have been cast in the 2026 midterms as of Friday evening, surpassing the previous early voting record of 45.9 million from 2022, with 22.9 million mail ballots and 26.8 million in-person votes counted.
• Registered Democrats lead early voting participation, accounting for 43% of votes cast, compared to 32% for Republicans and 25% for unregistered or smaller party voters, according to University of Florida’s Election Lab data.
• Texas, California, and Florida have recorded the highest early vote totals so far, with significant early voting increases noted in battleground states like Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Ohio.
• Polls indicate Democrats hold a substantial lead heading into Election Day, with RealClearPolling showing an 8.2-point advantage in the generic congressional vote and simulations projecting a 95% chance for Democrats to win the House majority and a 78% chance to flip the Senate.
• While early voting is at record levels, it still represents less than half of the total votes cast in the 2022 House elections, leaving room for voter decisions to shift in the final days before November 3.