Hurricane forecast: El Niño’s fingerprints are all over the season’s first predictions
CNN • • general
Key Points:
- Colorado State University (CSU) forecasts a slightly below-average 2024 Atlantic hurricane season with 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes, influenced largely by the anticipated El Niño event.
- El Niño, expected to develop mid-summer and peak during the hurricane season, typically increases wind shear in the Atlantic, which can suppress storm formation and intensity.
- Despite El Niño's influence, warmer ocean temperatures in the western tropical Atlantic could fuel more intense storms, while cooler temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic suggest quieter activity.
- The unpredictability of ocean temperatures and El Niño's strength means the hurricane season's activity could still vary, with the potential for rapid storm intensification similar to last year’s hurricanes.
- Forecasters emphasize caution in early predictions due to climate change impacts and evolving ocean conditions, noting that the peak hurricane season is still months away.
