Traders win big on Polymarket with accurate ceasefire bets, sparking concerns

Key Points:

• Several newly created accounts on the Polymarket platform placed well-timed, high-stakes bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, earning hundreds of thousands of dollars despite escalating tensions and no clear signals of an imminent agreement.
• One notable bet of about $72,000 placed around 10 a.m. Eastern yielded a $200,000 profit, while other accounts also showed significant earnings from similar wagers made just before key announcements.
• Some bets may have been based on expectations that President Trump would back down from his threats, a pattern critics have called "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out), or on last-minute diplomatic efforts such as Pakistan's attempt to extend Trump's deadline.
• Polymarket has flagged the ceasefire outcome as "disputed," delaying some payouts due to ongoing Iranian restrictions and missile strikes, with resolution expected within 48 hours.
• The use of proxy smart wallets on Polymarket allows users to operate multiple accounts anonymously, making it difficult to determine if these bets were placed by new or existing users; similar patterns of strategic betting on geopolitical events have been observed previously.