What’s Conspicuously Missing from the DOJ's Supreme Court Reply Brief in Mail Ballots Case

Key Points:

• A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction blocking the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) from enforcing its new mail ballot delivery rule in the 2026 election, citing catastrophic harms including widespread voter disenfranchisement and logistical chaos, which the government has not effectively disputed.
• The USPS rule requires election officials to upload voter information to an online portal before mailing ballots, but the portal is not yet operational, and the rule could lead to entire batches of ballots being rejected due to a single barcode error, increasing the risk of disenfranchisement.
• The Solicitor General’s reply brief to the Supreme Court fails to address the severe harms to voters and states or adequately justify how the rule would prevent voter fraud, instead making unsubstantiated claims about deterring bad actors without evidence.
• The government argues the equities do not matter because it claims an overwhelming likelihood of success on the merits, but legal experts and courts emphasize that the balance of equities—including public interest and potential harm to voters—must weigh heavily against granting a stay.
• The case is now before the Supreme Court, which may decide soon whether to allow the USPS to implement the rule during the 2026 election; current legal analysis strongly suggests the Court should deny the stay to avoid disenfranchisement and election disruption.